## Saturday, June 20, 2020

### Free Office Hours for Non-Traditional ML Researchers

This post was prompted by a tweet I saw from my colleague, Colin:

I'm currently a researcher at Google with a "non-traditional background", where non-traditional background means "someone who doesn't have a PhD". People usually get PhDs so they can get hired for jobs that require that credential. In the case of AI/ML, this might be to become a professor at a university, or land a research scientist position at a place like Google, or sometimes even both.

At Google it's possible to become a researcher without having a PhD, although it's not very easy. There are a two main paths [1]:

One path is to join an AI Residency Program, which are fixed-term jobs from non-university institution (FAANG companies, AI2, etc.) that aim to jump-start a research career in ML/AI. However, these residencies are usually just 1 year long and are not long enough to really "prove yourself" as a researcher.

Another path is to start as a software engineer (SWE) in an ML-focused team and build your colleagues' trust in your research abilities. This was the route I took: I joined Google in 2016 as a software engineer in the Google Brain Robotics team. Even though I was a SWE by title, it made sense to focus on the "most important problem", which was to think really hard about why the robots weren't doing what we wanted and train deep neural nets in an attempt to fix those problems. One research project led to another, and now I just do research + publications all the time.

As the ML/AI publishing field has grown exponentially in the last few years, it has gotten harder to break into research (see Colin's tweet). Top PhD programs like BAIR usually require students to have a publication at a top conference like ICML, ICLR, NeurIPS before they even apply. I'm pretty sure I would not have been accepted to any PhD programs if I were graduating from college today, and would have probably ended up taking a job offer in quantitative finance instead.

The uphill climb gets even steeper for aspiring researchers with non-traditional backgrounds; they are competing with no shortage of qualified PhD students. As Colin alludes to, it is also getting harder for internationals to work at American technology companies and learn from American schools, thanks to our administration's moronic leadership.

The supply-demand curves for ML/AI labor are getting quite distorted. On one hand, we have a tremendous global influx of people wanting to solve hard engineering problems and contribute to scientific knowledge and share it openly with the world. On the other hand, there seems to be a shortage of formal training:
1. A research mentor to learn the academic lingo and academic customs from, and more importantly, how to ask good questions and design experiments to answer them.
2. Company environments where software engineers are encouraged to take bold risks and lead their own research (and not just support researchers with infra).

Free Office Hours

I can't do much for (2) at the moment, but I can definitely help with (1). To that end, I'm offering free ML research mentorship to aspiring researchers from non-traditional backgrounds via email and video conferencing.

I'm most familiar with applied machine learning, robotics, and generative modeling, so I'm most qualified to offer technical advice in these areas. I have a bunch of tangential interests like quantitative finance, graphics, and neuroscience. Regardless of technical topic, I can help with academic writing and de-risking ambitious projects and choosing what problems to work on. I also want to broaden my horizons and learn more from you.

If you're interested in using this resource, send me an email at <myfirstname><mylastname><2004><at><g****.com>. In your email, include:
2. What you want to get out of advising
3. A cool research idea you have in a couple sentences
Some more details on how these office hours will work:
1. Book weekly or bi-weekly Google Meet [2] calls to check up on your work and ask questions, with 15 minute time slots scheduled via Google Calendar.
2. The point of these office hours is not to answer "how do I get a job at Google Research", but to fulfill an advisor-like role in lieu of a PhD program. If you are farther along your research career we can discuss career paths and opportunities a little bit, but mostly I just want to help people with (1).
3. I'm probably not going to write code or run experiments for you.
4. I don't want to be that PI that slaps their name on all of their student's work - most advice I give will be given freely with no strings attached. If I make a significant contribution to your work or spend > O(10) hours working with you towards a publishable result, I may request being a co-author on a publication.
5. I reserve the right to decline meetings if I feel that it is not a productive use of my time or if other priorities take hold.
6. I cannot tell you about unpublished work that I'm working on at Google or any Google-confidential information.
7. I'm not offering ML consultation for businesses, so your research work has to be unrelated to your job.
8. To re-iterate point number 2 once more, I'm less interested in giving career advice and more interested in teaching you how to design experiments, how to cite and write papers, and communicating research effectively.
What do I get out of this? First, I get to expand my network. Second, I can only personally run so many experiments by myself so this would help me grow my own research career. Third, I think the supply of mentorship opportunities offered by academia is currently not scalable, and this is a bit of an experiment on my part to see if we can do better. I'd like to give aspiring researchers similar opportunities that I had 4 years ago that allowed me to break into the field.

Footnotes
[1] Chris Olah has a great essay on some additional options and pros and cons of non-traditional education.
[2] Zoom complies with Chinese censorship requests, so as a statement of protest I avoid using Zoom when possible.

## Wednesday, April 1, 2020

### Three Questions that Keep Me Up at Night

A Google interview candidate recently asked me: "What are three big science questions that keep you up at night?" This was a great question because one's answer reveals so much about one's intellectual interests - here are mine:

Q1: Can we imitate "thinking" from only observing behavior?

Suppose you have a large fleet of autonomous vehicles with human operators driving them around diverse road conditions. We can observe the decisions made by the human, and attempt to use imitation learning algorithms to map robot observations to the steering decisions that the human would take.

However, we can't observe what the homunculus is thinking directly. Humans read road text and other signage to interpret what they should and should not do. Humans plan more carefully when doing tricky maneuvers (parallel parking). Humans feel rage and drowsiness and translate those feelings into behavior.

Let's suppose we have a large car fleet and our dataset is so massive and perpetually growing that we cannot train it faster than we are collecting new data. If we train a powerful black-box function approximator to learn the mapping from robot observation to human behavior [1], and we use active-learning techniques like DAgger to combat false negatives, will that be enough to acquire these latent information processing capabilities? Can the car learn to think like a human, and how much?

Inferring low-dimensional unobserved states from behavior is a well-studied technique in statistical modeling. In recent years, meta-reinforcement learning algorithms have increased the capability of agents to change their behavior in the presence of new information. However, no one has applied this principle to the scale and complexity of "human-level thinking and reasoning variables". If we use basic black-box function approximators (ConvNets, ResNets, Transformers, etc.), will it be enough? Or will it still fail even with a million lifetimes worth of driving data?

In other words, can simply predicting human behavior lead to a model that can learn to think like a human?

One cannot draw a hard line between "thinking" and "pattern matching", but loosely speaking I'd want to see such learned latent variables reflect basic deductive and inductive reasoning capabilities. For example, a logical proposition formulated as a steering problem: "Turn left if it is raining; right otherwise".

This could also be addressed via other high-data environments:

• Observing trader orders on markets and seeing if we can recover the trader's deductive reasoning and beliefs about the future. See if we can observe rational thought (if not rational behavior).
• Recovering intent and emotions and desire from social network activity.

Q2: What is the computationally cheapest "organic building block" of an Artificial Life simulation that could lead to human-level AGI?

Many AI researchers, myself included, believe that competitive survival of "living organisms" is the only true way to implement general intelligence.

If you lack some mental power like deductive reasoning, another agent might exploit the reality to its advantage to out-compete you for resources.

If you don't know how to grasp an object, you can't bring food to your mouth. Intelligence is not merely a byproduct of survival; I would even argue that it is Life and Death itself from which all semantic meaning we perceive in the world arises (the difference between a "stable grasp" and an "unstable grasp").

How does one realize an A-Life research agenda? It would be prohibitively expensive to implement large-scale evolution with real robots, because we don't know how to get robots to self-replicate as living organisms do. We could use synthetic biology technology, but we don't know how to write complex software for cells yet and even if we could, it would probably take billions of years for cells to evolve into big brains. A less messy compromise is to implement A-Life in silico and evolve thinking critters in there.

We'd want the simulation to be fast enough to simulate armies of critters. Warfare was a great driver of innovation. We also want the simulation to be rich and open-ended enough to allow for ecological niches and tradeoffs between mental and physical adaptations (a hand learning to grasp objects).

Therein lies the big question: if the goal is to replicate the billions of years of evolutionary progress leading up to where we are today, what are the basic pieces of the environment that would be just good enough?

• Chemistry? Cells? Ribosomes? I certainly hope not.
• How do nutrient cycles work? Resources need to be recycled from land to critters and back for there to be ecological change.
• Is the discovery of fire important for evolutionary progression of intelligence? If so, do we need to simulate heat?
• What about sound and acoustic waves?
• Is a rigid-body simulation of MuJoCo humanoids enough? Probably not, if articulated hands end up being crucial.
• Is Minecraft enough?
• Does the mental substrate need to be embodied in the environment and subject to the physical laws of the reality? Our brains certainly are, but it would be bad if we had to simulate neural networks in MuJoCo.
• Is conservation of energy important? If we are not careful, it can be possible through evolution for agents to harvest free energy from their environment.

In the short story Crystal Nights by Greg Egan, simulated "Crabs" are built up of organic blocks that they steal from other Crabs. Crabs "reproduce" by assembling a new crab out of parts, like LEGO. But the short story left me wanting for more implementation details...

Q3: Loschmidt's Paradox and What Gives Rise to Time?

I recently read The Order of Time by Carlo Rovelli and being a complete Physics newbie, finished the book feeling more confused and mystified than when I had started.

The second law of thermodynamics, $\Delta{S} > 0$, states that entropy increases with time. That is the only physical law that is requires time "flow" forwards; all other physical laws have Time-Symmetry: they hold even if time was flowing backwards. In other words, T-Symmetry in a physical system implies conservation of entropy.

Microscopic phenomena (laws of mechanics on position, acceleration, force, electric field, Maxwell's equations) exhibit T-Symmetry. Macroscopic phenomena (gases dispersing in a room, people going about their lives), on the other hand, are T-Asymmetric. It is perhaps an adaptation to macroscopic reality being T-Asymmetric that our conscious experience itself has evolved to become aware of time passing. Perhaps bacteria do not need to know about time...

But if macroscopic phenomena are comprised of nothing more than countless microscopic phenomena, where the heck does entropy really come from?

Upon further Googling, I learned that this question is known as Loschmidt's Paradox. One resolution that I'm partially satisfied with is to consider that if we take all microscopic collisions to be driven by QM, then there really is no such thing as "T-symmetric" interactions, and thus microscopic interactions are actually T-asymmetric. A lot of the math becomes simpler to analyze if we consider a single pair of particles obeying randomized dynamics (whereas in Statistical Mechanics we are only allowed to assume that about a population of particles).

Even if we accept that macroscopic time originates from a microscopic equivalent of entropy, this still begs the question of what the origin of microscopic entropy (time) is.

Unfortunately, many words in English do not help to divorce my subjective, casual understanding of time from a more precise, formal understanding. Whenever I think of microscopic phenomena somehow "causing" macroscopic phenomena or the cause of time (entropy) "increasing", my head gets thrown for a loop. So much T-asymmetry is baked into our language!

I'd love to know of resources to gain a complete understanding of what we know and don't know, and perhaps a new language to think about Causality from a physics perspective

If you have thoughts on these questions, or want to share your own big science questions that keep you up at night, let me know in the comments or on Twitter! #3sciencequestions